Original-Research: wallstreet:online AG (von GBC AG)
Original-Research: wallstreet:online AG - von GBC AG
Einstufung von GBC AG zu wallstreet:online AG
Unternehmen: wallstreet:online AG
Anlass der Studie: Research study (Anno)
Kursziel: 37.55 EUR
Analyst: Marcel Goldmann, Cosmin Filker
FY 2021 closed with significant revenue growth from booming transaction and portal business; Dynamic revenue growth also for the current FY 2022 due to the strong expansion and optimisation of the Brokerage business expected; The continuation of the successful growth strategy should ensure dynamic sales and earnings growth in the future; Target price: EUR 37.55 (previously: EUR 38.60); Rating: Buy
According to published business figures, wallstreet:online achieved a new record in the past financial year 2021 on a pro forma basis with revenue growth of 82.2% to EUR 51.40 million (previous year: EUR 28.21 million). The transaction business (Smartbroker) proved to be the main growth driver. This exceeded the company's guidance (EUR 45.00 million to EUR 50.00 million). Our revenue estimate was also reached or almost reached on a pro forma basis as well as on the level of reported consolidated revenues (EUR 48.20 million) (GBC forecast: EUR 49.10 million).
At the earnings level, EBITDA adjusted for one-time effects and new customer acquisition costs for the Smartbroker of EUR 13.1 million increased dynamically by 45.0% to EUR 17.50 million (previous year: EUR 12.50 million). Due to considerable investments in the expansion and development of the brokerage business, which, in addition to development costs incurred, primarily affected the marketing and personnel areas, the EBITDA after customer acquisition costs fell to EUR 3.90 million (previous year: EUR 7.50 million) compared to the previous year. It should be noted that the EBITDA of the previous year was positively influenced by a special effect based on extraordinary income (EUR 3.01 million) from the sale of an investment. The company thus also met its earnings guidance (adjusted EBITDA before customer acquisition costs: EUR 17.50 million). Our earnings estimate was not reached due to higher costs for the development and expansion of their transaction business.
For the current financial year 2022, wallstreet:online also expects a continuation of their dynamic growth course. The management expects a significant increase in consolidated revenues of around 25.0% to between EUR 62.0 million and EUR 67.0 million compared to the previous year. At the earnings level, adjusted EBITDA (operating EBITDA) after customer acquisition costs is expected to be in a range of EUR 10.00 million to EUR 12.00 million. With regard to customer acquisition costs (Smartbroker), the company expects marketing costs of EUR 6.00 million for the current financial period and thus an adjusted EBITDA before customer acquisition costs of EUR 16.00 million to EUR 18.00 million.
We also expect that the company will be able to continue its successful growth course dynamically in the current financial year and in the years to come. The transaction business and the Smartbroker should continue to be the main growth drivers in the future. Specifically, we expect consolidated revenue of EUR 62.33 million for the current financial year. In the following years 2023 and 2024, these should increase further to EUR 84.02 million and EUR 98.57 million respectively.
Parallel to our revenue estimates, we also expect significant growth in earnings. For the current financial year 2022, we calculate an EBITDA of EUR 10.04 million. Based on expected economies of scale in both business units, we expect a disproportionate increase in EBITDA to EUR 14.05 million and EUR 28.73 million for the coming financial years 2023 and 2024, respectively. At the same time, the expected EBITDA margin should jump from 16.1% (2022) to 29.1% (2024).
Overall, we remain convinced that the wallstreet:online group will succeed in significantly expanding its market positions in their two complementary business segments and thus continue its dynamic growth course. Their significant investments in the Smartbroker should be increasingly reflected in their earnings and profitability figures in the future, in particular due to expected economies of scale and an improved cost structure. In addition, we expect that the increased dovetailing of the synergetic media and brokerage business activities will additionally boost the growth course and profitability of the group.
Within the framework of our DCF valuation model, we have determined a target price of EUR 38.60 per share based on our estimates, which were previously adjusted in our research report (based on the preliminary business figures). Due to higher capital costs (the increase in the risk- free interest rate to 0.40% instead of the previous 0.25%) compared to the previous study (as of 30 March 2022), we have slightly lowered our previous price target to EUR 37.55 per share. We have left our previous revenue and earnings estimates unchanged. In view of the current share price level, we continue to give the rating 'Buy' and see significant upside potential.
Die vollständige Analyse können Sie hier downloaden: http://www.more-ir.de/d/24433.pdf
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Datum und Zeitpunkt der Fertigstellung der Studie: 20.06.2022 (9:31 Uhr) Datum und Zeitpunkt der ersten Weitergabe: 20.06.2022 (10:00 Uhr) Gültigkeit des Kursziels: bis max. 31.12.2022
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